What happens on April 25th?

In Erkan's mumbles, TR-US relations, Turkey and Armenians, Turkish foreign policy on February 4, 2009 at 16:22

Yuvakuran below urges us to think about what might happen after April 24:

On 24th April 2009 Friday morning, it is most likely that the new US President will make an unavoidable and regrettable speech on so-called genocide, to put fuel on an 100-years old sad historical story in order to please his Armenian voters and to repay his election debt.

And he announced the most likely response:

The day after, we may read that Incirlik Air Base is closed to all foreign access.

New Turkish foreign policy seemed to have decided not to rely on the Jewish lobby in US that had helped prevent the becoming of this scenario before.
One likely idea might be that Turkish leaders believe Turkey has now self-confidence, that she is indispensable in Middle East. So that nothing changes.
But more likely idea is that Mr. Obama may try to bypass Turkey. His special envoy did not even visit Turkey… I do not think US or EU countries give much credit to Turkey at the moment and I am not sure if this is right or wrong but this seems to be the case. Turkey is risking her chances, she might win or not. Mr. Obama may have revolutionary ideas for domestic politics but in foreign policy he might have relied on the overall FP structure. Honestly, the best thing he could do would be not to start another war. We will see. But in the mean time, this dark scenario may happen. That is, the closure of İncirlik Base.

That seems inevitable. AKP cannot act against a sweeping nationalist reaction.

In the mean time, in these tense and but exciting times, your Erkan will be serving his military duty. Yes, it is time. I will write about it soon.  I might miss some but experience some other things. We will see…

The Day After April 24th 2009

By yuvakuran

Dear Energy Professional, Dear Colleagues,

On 24th April 2009 Friday morning, it is most likely that the new US President will make an unavoidable and regrettable speech on so-called genocide, to put fuel on an 100-years old sad historical story in order to please his Armenian voters and to repay his election debt.

The day after, we may read that Incirlik Air Base is closed to all foreign access.

After every US presidential elections, Turkish Ministry of foreign affairs, Turkish armed forces, Turkish media, and Turkish intellectuals have an important task. When the winner is a democrat candidate, we should start to educate the newcomer, and his/her staff/ advisers, what they can expect, what to say, what not to say. ……………

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